We left off yesterday with an idea that the wider macro outlook is uncertain and cloudy.
But hey, it’s pretty much always like that.
But there’s a broad point I missed saying: Don’t think for a moment that you can’t make money under today’s skies.
Stocks are running all over the place.
Consider that yesterday, the ASX 200 closed only about 2% off its all-time high from 2007.
What’s notable is that stocks are doing this all over the world.
That’s despite the relentless negative signals from the bond markets (and the media).
The S&P 500 over in the US went into record territory this week…
Reuters reports that European shares have been lifted into 12-month highs.
Stocks in Brazil have gone into all-time highs…
There’s an element of making hay while the sun is shining. Ride the market while it’s running.
Lately, my colleague Jonathan Evans and I have both noted the number of small caps flying up all over the place (see one example in his piece below).
Point being: Sometimes we have to listen with our eyes. If you’re interested in catching some fast rides in the market, now looks to be the time to do it.
It does lead me to think we’re moving into the final expected phase of a big bull market: Rampant speculation.
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But I’m not quite sure whether the psychology of the market fits the bill.
There’s still so much to worry about!
The idea here is that bull markets peak on heady optimism.
Could a resolution of the trade war be that trigger?
I’m just floating a thought here.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see some sort of scenario like this: The trade war gets resolved to general satisfaction… Everyone gives a big sigh of relief and starts throwing their money into the market… Then something else nasty comes along and take us all by surprise!
We’ll keep tracking things for you. I remain bullish…but always with a cautious eye as to when it’s time to cut out of the action and stand aside.