Don’t Dig Gold, Sell the Shovel! – Australia is Not Prepared for a Crisis

Australia is Not Ready for a Crisis - Coronavirus

Dear Reader,

I’ve come to a conclusion recently. Australians aren’t prepared to deal with a crisis.

Don’t think I’m taking a stab. It’s the truth.

It doesn’t matter if that crisis is a fire or a pandemic.

We’ve got a supply issue and I’ve got a few photos to prove it to you…

Hear me out…

During the bush fires, you may have heard of the news that we ran out of masks.

I can confirm this news as well…when the smog was thick, I went hunting for a new mask.

Maybe you did too?

The problem…sold out.

If you are like me, you may have tried multiple locations to get your hands on one?

I couldn’t find one anywhere.

Eventually, I bought a reusable mask online. With a load of replacement filters.

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We’ve got a new commodity

Anyway. We’ve got a problem today too.

Not only are face masks in short supply, but so are hand sanitisers.

I began hearing rumours that daigous were back in action again.

A daigou is someone who buys products on behalf of someone else. In this case, it’s China.

Anyway, instead of it being milk and vitamins, this time it’s face masks and hand sanitiser.

You don’t need to trust my word though…

…we will see an increase with Chinese daigou/travellers sending items to China, specifically products like hand sanitiser, facemasks and vitamins,’ Dr McDougall said.

Dr Mathew McDougall is a China expert.

I figured it can’t be as bad as they’d been saying. So I visited a few pharmacies in Melbourne.

I couldn’t believe my eyes…

Sold out. Almost in every store.

Have you ever heard of hand sanitisers being sold out? I sure haven’t!

Here’s an image I took yesterday at Chemist Warehouse.

Port Phillip Publishing

Source: Jonathan Evans

[Click to open in a new window]

What you’re looking at above is the hand sanitiser section. It’s empty with ‘out of stock’ tags on every item.

I went to three Chemist Warehouse stores around the city. No one could give me the answer to when they’ll have stock.

So I checked online for stock…

Well, take a look at the image below.

Port Phillip Publishing

Source: Chemist Warehouse

[Click to open in a new window]

What you’re looking at above is hand sanitiser stock levels from stores around Melbourne.

As you can see all stores have no stock.

And the image below I took at Price Line. The rows are one deep.

Port Phillip Publishing

Source: Jonathan Evans

[Click to open in a new window]

What you’re looking at above is the remainder stock at Price Line in Melbourne.

Once they’re gone, they’re gone’, the staff member told me.

Do you get an eerie feeling that China doesn’t have this under control?

Why is there a mad frenzy for hand sanitiser? Yes, hand sanitiser!

I can’t be the only one going mad thinking about this, can I?

It’s no secret that I’m a sceptic here. I don’t think the Chinese Communist Party has this under control.

Here’s the Dow Jones

But hey, what would I know. I’m not a health professional and I don’t claim to be one.

It’s just something we should be keeping in mind.

Anyway, let’s talk about something that is a little bit more interesting.

For the last few weeks, you’ve been tracking the Dow Jones.

I’ve attached the chart of the Dow Jones below.

Dow Jones Index - Coronavirus Crisis

Source: Optuma

[Click to open in a new window]

Four support levels to watch

It’s a daily chart and has four lines on it.

The pink line is the newest line, I added it to the chart last week.

Each line right now is acting as a support level to the down move.

That means if the Dow was to fall it may find support on one of these lines.

I added these support levels so that we could judge the impact of the coronavirus on the Dow.

Right now, the Dow is looking quite strong. But this can change at any time.

The reason we’re focusing on the Dow is because any rise or fall can roll over into our local markets.

So it’s a good bellwether for the day ahead.

Anyway, it’s a chart we’ll continue to watch, and I’ll update you on these levels again shortly.

To recap: The chart above suggests to me that while China may be struggling to contain the coronavirus, the US market is not concerned with the effect on US stocks — even those with significant investments in China, like Apple…at least for now.

Until next time,

Jonathan Evans Signature

Jonathan Evans,
Analyst, Profit Watch

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