Bitcoin to the moon?

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Late last year, bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman declared bitcoin dead.

It’s not strange to hear these kinds of calls. But Erik’s was unusual because bitcoin made him rich. You could say he’s jumped off the bandwagon!

Yet investor James Altucher says it’s still possible bitcoin will go to US$1 million.

How to make sense of where bitcoin will go? It’s not easy. Extreme calls either way occur regularly.

Crypto enthusiasts are forever feeling the bitcoin fever. Their solution is to buy bitcoin…whatever the price.

Meanwhile, investment funds and bank executives continue to issue dire warnings.

Personally, I let the charts do the talking.

I don’t care if the price is moving higher, lower or even sideways.

Bitcoin tends to turn on what I call ‘time counts’. I use these time counts to forecast future moves.

If you missed your introduction to time counts, read this article.

Here is a quick recap: A time count is based on historical data, and any trader or investor can identify these dates well in advance.

Once we pinpoint the dates when the market is expected to change direction, we simply count forward in time (time count) and pinpoint the next date.

An update on the latest bitcoin forecast

Take a look at the chart below…

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Source: Optuma

On 29 May, I forecast for bitcoin to turn lower around 3 June and bottom out around 6 June.

On the chart above, I highlighted in the green vertical strip where I believed the price would form a low. I illustrated this hypothetical scenario using the blue line to represent bitcoin’s possible price action.

This forecast has been spot on from a time perspective so far.

You can see that in May, I was projecting for bitcoin to drop for a short time before resuming its rise.

Markets are fluid. Right now, looking at bitcoin’s price action, I’d say bitcoin is in a relatively weak position.

I’m no longer confident of a further move up, at least in the short term.

That doesn’t mean the price cannot go higher. But it does mean that I’m watching for a downward move as a higher probability now.

What’s the new forecast?

Take a look at the chart below…

Source: Optuma

It shows the bitcoin price from December 2018 until now.

My current analysis indicates bitcoin is likely to keep trending down until 15 June. I’ve marked this chart with the same green vertical strip.

That’s a significant time count for bitcoin. We can expect a strong move on this day — admittedly up or down.

The key to using technical analysis is not to have a fixed view of where a share or asset can go. That helps keep us traders out of trouble.

For now, expect weakness in bitcoin to continue. And let’s see what happens on 15 June.

By the way, this article is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC. It’s an update only. I hope you found it helpful.

Until next time,

Jim Rickards Signature

Jonathan Evans,
Analyst, Profit Watch

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